Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition with highly variable clinical outcomes. In this study, we aimed to present data on patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis and to identify laboratory and clinical parameters, along with established scoring systems for AP, that may help predict clinical outcomes of this condition.

In this retrospective observational cohort study, we analyzed 95 patients treated at our tertiary care center throughout 2024. Data was collected from electronic medical records. Variables included medical history (medication use, history of AP, alcohol consumption, etc.), vital parameters on admission, laboratory and imaging findings, as well as scoring systems for acute pancreatitis (SIRS score, BISAP score, CT severity score, Ranson and modified Ranson criteria). The primary clinical outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included sepsis, multi-organ failure and length of treatment. A p-value of under 0,05 was considered statistically significant. Fisher’s exact test was used for categorical variables, while Mann-Whitney U test was applied in comparison of continuous variables.

Patients were divided based on 30-day mortality outcomes. 86 patients had successfully recovered, while 9 had a lethal outcome. Using Fisher’s exact test, significant correlations were discovered between 30-day mortality and the following events: pancreatic infection (11.6 % vs 66.7 %, p < 0.001), sepsis (5.8 % vs 66.7 %, p < 0.001), bleeding (1.2 % vs 22.2 %, p = 0.023), multi-organ failure (1.2 % vs 77.8 %, p < 0.001), loss of consciousness (0.0 % vs 22.2 %, p = 0.022), kidney damage (2.3 % vs 44.4 %, p < 0.001), shock (2.3 % vs 55.6 %, p < 0.001) and pancreatic necrosis (35.3 % vs 83.3 %, p = 0.049). Lethal outcomes were additionally associated with lower mean arterial pressure (99.83 ± 12.79 vs 83.59 ± 16.53 mmHg, p = 0.008), elevated blood urea levels 48 hours after admission (4.97 ± 2.46 vs 9.83 ± 5.96 mmol/L, p = 0.0039) and higher leukocyte count (12.02 ± 4.24 vs 15.64 ± 5.97 [10⁹]/L, p = 0.037). Based on calculated odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), the strongest predictors of 30-day mortality were multi-organ failure (OR 77.829, 95% CI 3.379 – 1792.804) and BISAP score (OR 2.471, 95% CI 1.123 – 5.435).

Several clinical and laboratory parameters correlated with lethal outcomes in acute pancreatitis, with multi-organ failure emerging as the strongest predictor and BISAP showing the highest scoring accuracy. While further studies with larger samples are needed, these findings highlight the potential of clinical variables in early identification and timely management of high-risk patients.