Limited research has been conducted on the lifetime risks of pancreatitis, defined as the chance of developing or dying from the disease over one’s lifetime. This study aims to estimate the global lifetime risks of pancreatitis from 1990 to 2021.

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 estimates of pancreatitis incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than pancreatitis to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of pancreatitis. Regional and gender disparities, health inequalities, temporal trends, and future projections were explored.

In 2021, the global lifetime risks of developing and dying from pancreatitis were 2.93% (95% CI: 2.92%–2.94%) and 0.16% (95% CI: 0.16%–0.16%), respectively. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) was positively correlated with lifetime incidence risk (r = 0.707, p < 0.001) and exhibited a weak positive correlation with lifetime mortality risk (r = 0.248, p < 0.001). Eastern Europe and High-income North America had the highest lifetime risk of developing pancreatitis, while Eastern Europe had the highest mortality risk. The male-to-female lifetime risk ratios were 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03–1.04) for incidence and 1.24 (95% CI: 1.20–1.28) for mortality. The mortality risk after age 70 accounted for 56% of the overall lifetime risk. Between 1990 and 2021, Western Europe experienced the largest increase in incidence risk, while Eastern Europe had the largest increase in mortality risk.

The lifetime risk of developing pancreatitis is approximately 1 in 34, with geographic variations and higher risks in males. Targeted prevention in high-risk areas and focused management among the elderly are essential to reducing the future burden of pancreatitis.